Rare Element Resources: Potential Short Opportunity
Shareholder Watchdog, 21 October 2010
We have witnessed a fair share of bubbles over the past 15 years: internet stocks, housing, crude oil, and Chinese stocks. We have had some success in identifying “bubbles” in individual stocks and warning the investment community about specific issues (including HUSA at $20.35 see here and PCBC at $5.11 see here). Continue reading “Article: Rare Element Resources: Potential Short Opportunity”
Bank of America: Bondholders’ Naked Play for a “Do-Over” on Mortgages
CBS, 20 October 2010
Yesterday’s Bank of America (BAC) bond scare was an interesting reminder of just how much of a mess the foreclosure crisis really is. It may not be the same kind of swoon we experienced two years ago, but the vulnerabilities created by the shoddy mortgage origination and servicing industry will probably haunt the financial system for years to come — like war reparations.
It took a while for the financial world to sort out the meaning of the letter PIMCO, Blackstone and the New York Federal Reserve Bank sent to Bank of America yesterday asking that $47 billion in bonds be “put back” to the bank because of deficient servicing by Countrywide, the Bank of America subsidiary that originated the loans. The markets and the journalistic community can be forgiven for over-reacting.
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The ongoing tumult in financial markets and the global economy began when some of our most esteemed financial institutions, our government, and even average citizens abdicated their collective responsibilities, eventually selling out investors and selling off the American Dream itself.
From critically acclaimed investigative journalist and CNBC personality Charles Gasparino comes a sweeping examination of the most volatile, anxiety-ridden era in our nation’s socioeconomic history. The winner of the 2009 Investigative Reporters and Editors Award for Books, The Sellout traces the recent implosion of the financial services business back to its roots in the late 1970s, when Wall Street embraced a new business model predicated on enormous risk.
Continue reading “Book: The Sellout: How Three Decades of Wall Street Greed and Government Mismanagement Destroyed the Global Financial System”
Field of Schemes: David Einhorn’s latest short
NakedCapitalism, 15 October 2010
Einhorn is the famous Lehman short of 2008; he got a lot of flak from Clueless Charlie Gasparino for that. I seem to remember our own Lehman bear, Yves, getting snarled at by Charlie G somewhere along the line, too. But of course, Einhorn, via his vehicle Greenlight Capital, had it right; as did Yves (something that those decrying the “Yellow Journalism” of recent NC posts on “foreclosuregate” would do well to consider).
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Whistle. Then Worry and Wait.
New York Times, 9 October 2010
Sitting in a Minneapolis mansion and listening to a charismatic investment manager describe a currency trading system that kept earning handsome returns year after year, Arthur F. Schlobohm IV was certain he had stumbled onto a Ponzi scheme.
A longtime trader who started running tickets on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as a teenager, Mr. Schlobohm, known as Ty, knew that Minneapolis, his home for nine years, was too small a town for a $4.4 billion investment fund to have escaped his notice.
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Short selling in initial public offerings
Amy K. Edwards, Kathleen Weiss Hanley
Journal of Financial Economics, 1 October 2010
Short sale constraints in the aftermarket of initial public offerings (IPOs) are often used to explain short-term underpricing that is subsequently reversed. This paper shows that short selling is integral to aftermarket trading and is higher in IPOs with greater underpricing. Perceived restrictions on borrowing shares are not systematically circumvented by “naked” short selling. Short sellers, on average, do not appear to earn abnormal profits in the near term and our findings are not driven by market makers. Short selling in IPOs is not as constrained as suggested by the literature, implying that other factors may be responsible for underpricing.
Paywall access to article.
Fails to Deliver: The Price Impact of Naked Short Sales
Stanford University, 27 September 2010
The effect of naked short selling on asset prices and trading dynamics is a prominent topic of debate among market participants, regulators, and the popular press. This paper evaluates the validity of the claim that naked shorting leads to negative excess returns by creating additional selling pressure. While data on naked short sales is not publicly available, Securities Exchange Commission data on failures to deliver is a strong proxy. Fail to deliver data for 2004 covers a period during which the prevalence of naked short selling was not public knowledge since neither the fail to deliver data nor the Regulation SHO List were publicly available. In excluding information and regulation effects, the analysis presented in this paper isolates potential microstructure price effects.
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Morgan Stanley Challenges “ETF Collapse” Theory
ETF, 24 September 2010
Matt Tagliani, head of European and Asian ETF product at Morgan Stanley in London, has challenged the theory of an ETF collapse caused by the lending and short sale of ETFs.
The theory, promulgated by Bogan Associates, LLC in a 15 September white paper entitled “Can an ETF Collapse?” was publicised in a subsequent FT Alphaville blog and then featured as the topic of a CNBC strategy session on Wednesday this week.
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