Pannobhaso, 12 March 2014
When it comes to forecasting the size of the market for drugs to treat various diseases, the estimates for the same disease can seem to fluctuated wildly depending on the model used and the timeframe of the forecast. However, one thing that is fairly consistent is that for many of the major diseases, these forecasts involve big numbers – billions of dollars. However, as a guide to pharmaceutical earnings, these forecasts are meaningless if health payers cannot afford the costs.
A recent report says that at least 1 in 100 Americans has Hepatitis C (HCV). The HCV market has been estimated to reach $18B by 2017; up from $7B in 2014. RBC Capital Markets forecasts that the Hepatitis B (HBV) market will grow from $2B in 2014 to between $6B and $16B by 2020 (depending on effective new drugs coming on to the market). The market for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is forecast to reach $21.8B by 2018. Diseases associated with aging, such as Alzheimer’s, are going to trend in the same direction.