TYLER DURDEN, 28 March 2021
“At some point on the current path, policy makers will attempt to normalize,” said the CIO. We were discussing sequencing, recognizing its centrality to macro trading, investing. “They will start by attempting to taper Fed purchases,” he said, the US central bank currently creating $120bln per month and using it to purchase debt. “Perhaps they signal that they intend to lower the deficit.” But of course, that would only be after they first lift the deficit to fund America’s coming $3trln Recovery Plan. “And at that point, the clock starts ticking,” he said.
“Even if one thinks the current policy path inevitably leads to a substantial inflation, there are enough orthodox policy makers that we can be confident they’ll try to avert that outcome,” continued the same CIO. “So what we need to figure out is how far they’ll let stocks and inflation run before they’re compelled to taper,” he said. “And then we’ll need to judge how long it will take for the economy and/or market to take a deep dive.” Not long. “When they then quickly pivot and aggressively ease, their predicament will be clear for all to see.”
“Given the size of the stimulus and deficits at this stage, if policy makers are seen to be unable to normalize in any material way, that will be the stage in the sequencing when the great reset begins,” explained the same CIO. “Markets at that point will move very fast.” Maintaining calm given current policy settings requires inflation expectations to remain anchored and investors to believe policy can be normalized. “I am often a bit early on the very big trades, but this whole sequence appears sure to play out over the coming three years.”